{"id":400,"date":"2026-08-28T21:53:51","date_gmt":"2026-08-28T13:53:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thaumaturgy.animax.moe\/?p=400"},"modified":"2026-08-28T21:53:51","modified_gmt":"2026-08-28T13:53:51","slug":"8-%e8%bf%98%e6%98%af-4-4%ef%bc%9a%e4%b8%ba%e4%bb%80%e4%b9%88ai-%e6%91%a7%e6%af%81%e7%be%8e%e5%9b%bd%e7%94%b5%e7%bd%91%e5%8f%99%e4%ba%8b%e6%af%94-berkeley-lab-%e5%ae%9e%e6%b5%8b%e6%9b%b4%e6%bf%80","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thaumaturgy.animax.moe\/?p=400","title":{"rendered":"8% \u8fd8\u662f 4.4%\uff1a\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48&#8221;AI \u6467\u6bc1\u7f8e\u56fd\u7535\u7f51&#8221;\u53d9\u4e8b\u6bd4 Berkeley Lab \u5b9e\u6d4b\u66f4\u6fc0\u8fdb"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>\u7b80\u77ed\u7ed3\u8bba<\/strong>\uff1a\u628a\u8fd9\u4ef6\u4e8b\u62c6\u5f00\u540e\u53d8\u5f97\u5947\u602a\u7684\uff0c\u4e0d\u662f&quot;AI \u7528\u7535\u53d8\u591a&quot;\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u53d8\u591a\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u2014\u2014\u5a92\u4f53\u53cd\u590d\u63f4\u5f15 Goldman Sachs \u7684 8%\u3001IEA \u7f8e\u56fd +130% \u7b49&quot;\u786e\u5b9a\u6570\u5b57&quot;\uff0c\u4f46\u7f8e\u56fd\u80fd\u6e90\u90e8 2024 \u5e74 12 \u6708\u53d1\u5e03\u7684\u3001\u7531 Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory \u7528\u786c\u4ef6\u6e05\u5355\u6cd5\u9010\u9879\u6e05\u70b9\u7684\u5b9e\u6d4b\u663e\u793a\uff0c2023 \u5e74\u7f8e\u56fd\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u5fc3\u7528\u7535\u53ea\u6709 176 TWh\uff0c\u5360\u5168\u7f8e 4.4%\uff1b\u5176 2028 \u5e74\u533a\u95f4\u662f 325\u2013580 TWh\uff0c\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e 6.7%\u201312%\u3002\u4e3b\u6d41\u5a92\u4f53\u628a\u5e26\u5bbd\u9876\u7aef\u5f53\u4f5c\u4e3b\u7ebf\u62a5\u9053\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u663e\u5f0f\u544a\u8bc9\u8bfb\u8005&quot;\u90a3\u53ea\u662f\u5e26\u5bbd\u7684\u4e00\u7aef&quot;\u3002\u6211\u4e0b\u9762\u628a\u8fd9\u4ef6\u4e8b\u62c6\u5f00\uff0c\u7ed9\u51fa\u8c03\u67e5\u540e\u7684\u5224\u65ad\u3002<\/p>\n<h2>\u4e00\u3001\u4e3b\u6d41\u53d9\u4e8b\u7684\u51e0\u4e2a\u660e\u786e\u6570\u5b57<\/h2>\n<p>\u8fc7\u53bb\u4e00\u5e74\uff0c&quot;AI \u8ba9\u7f8e\u56fd\u7535\u8d39\u4e0a\u6da8&quot;\u51e0\u4e4e\u662f\u516c\u5171\u653f\u7b56\u4e0e\u5a92\u4f53\u7684\u5171\u8bc6\u3002\u51e0\u4e2a\u6570\u5b57\u88ab\u53cd\u590d\u5f15\u7528\uff1a<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Goldman Sachs Research\uff0c2024 \u5e74 5 \u6708\u300aAI is poised to drive 160% increase in data center power demand\u300b\uff1a\u5230 2030 \u5e74\u7f8e\u56fd\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u5fc3\u5c06\u5360\u5168\u7f8e\u7535\u529b 8%\uff08\u5176\u6587\u4e2d\u5bf9\u6bd4\u7684 2022 \u5e74\u6c34\u5e73\u4e3a 3%\uff09\uff0c2023\u20132030 \u5e74\u7535\u529b\u9700\u6c42\u5e74\u5747\u589e\u957f 15%\u3002<\/li>\n<li>Goldman Sachs\uff0c2025 \u5e74\u4e0b\u534a\u5e74\u300aUS Data Center Power Demand Projected to Double by 2027\u300b\uff1a\u7f8e\u56fd\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u5fc3\u88c5\u673a\u91cf\u5c06\u4ece 2025 \u5e74\u7684 31 GW \u8dc3\u5347\u81f3 2027 \u5e74\u7684 95 GW\uff0c\u5047\u8bbe 70% \u5229\u7528\u7387\uff1b\u5e76\u9884\u6d4b 2026 \u5e74\u51c0\u589e\u88c5\u673a 13.6 GW\u30012027 \u5e74\u51c0\u589e 36.3 GW\u3002<\/li>\n<li>IEA\uff0c2025 \u5e74 4 \u6708\u300aEnergy and AI\u300b\uff1a\u7f8e\u56fd\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u5fc3\u5230 2030 \u5e74\u6bd4 2024 \u5e74\u591a 240 TWh\uff0c\u589e\u957f 130%\u3002<\/li>\n<li>EPRI\u300aPowering Intelligence\u300b\uff082024\uff09\uff1a\u7f8e\u56fd\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u5fc3\u5230 2030 \u5e74\u5360\u5168\u7f8e\u7535\u529b 4.6%\u20139.1%\u3002<\/li>\n<li>Boston Consulting Group\uff0c2024 \u5e74 6 \u6708\u300aUS Data Center Power Outlook\u300b\uff1a\u4e0a\u9650\u7ea6 970 TWh\uff0c\u7ea6\u7f8e\u56fd 2023 \u5e74\u603b\u53d1\u7535\u91cf 4,178 TWh \u7684 23\u201325%\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6570\u5b57\u770b\u8d77\u6765\u5f7c\u6b64\u8fde\u8d2f\u2014\u2014\u5230 2030 \u5e74\u5927\u7ea6 8%\u20139%\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\u5a92\u4f53\u628a\u5b83\u4eec\u5f53\u4f5c&quot;\u4e1a\u5185\u5171\u8bc6&quot;\u4f7f\u7528\u3002<\/p>\n<h2>\u4e8c\u3001\u88ab\u5ffd\u89c6\u7684\u5b9e\u6d4b\u6570\u5b57\uff1a4.4% \u4e0e 6.7%\u201312% \u7684\u5e26\u5bbd<\/h2>\n<p>\u4e0e\u5546\u4e1a\u7814\u7a76\u4e0d\u540c\uff0cLawrence Berkeley National Laboratory\uff08LBNL\uff092024 \u5e74 12 \u6708\u7531 Arman Shehabi \u7b49\u4eba\u53d1\u5e03\u7684\u300a2024 United States Data Center Energy Usage Report\u300b\u662f\u76ee\u524d\u552f\u4e00\u540c\u65f6\u62e5\u6709 GPU\u3001\u52a0\u901f\u5668\u3001\u5b58\u50a8\u3001\u7f51\u7edc\u3001\u51b7\u5374\u7b49\u786c\u4ef6\u6e05\u5355\u3001\u5e76\u6309\u670d\u52a1\u5668\u88c5\u673a\u91cf\u505a bottom-up \u5b9e\u6d4b\u7684\u653f\u5e9c\u7814\u7a76\u3002\u62a5\u544a\u7ed9\u51fa\uff1a<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>2023 \u5e74\u5b9e\u6d4b\uff1a\u7f8e\u56fd\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u5fc3\u8017\u7535 176 TWh\uff0c\u5360\u5168\u7f8e\u603b\u7528\u7535 4.4%\u3002<\/li>\n<li>2028 \u9884\u6d4b\u5e26\u5bbd\uff1a325\u2013580 TWh\uff0c\u5bf9\u5e94 6.7%\u201312% \u5168\u7f8e\u7535\u529b\u4efd\u989d\u3002<\/li>\n<li>2014\u20132023 \u5386\u53f2\uff1a58 TWh \u2192 176 TWh\uff0c\u5e74\u5316\u589e\u957f\u7ea6 13%\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u4ece 2023 \u5230 2028\uff0cLBNL \u81ea\u5df1\u627f\u8ba4\u7684\u5e74\u5316\u589e\u957f\u7387\u5728 13% \u5230 22% \u4e4b\u95f4\u2014\u2014\u4e00\u4e2a\u5bbd\u5ea6\u8fd1\u4e00\u500d\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u533a\u95f4\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f Goldman \u90a3\u79cd 15% \u7684\u7ebf\u6027\u5916\u63a8\u3002LBNL \u5199\u5728\u62a5\u544a\u91cc\uff0c\u4f46\u5a92\u4f53\u51e0\u4e4e\u4e0d\u8ba9\u8fd9\u6bb5\u5bbd\u5ea6\u53ef\u89c1\u3002<\/p>\n<h2>\u4e09\u3001\u70b9\u4f30\u8ba1 vs. \u5e26\u5bbd\uff1a\u65b9\u6cd5\u5b66\u7684\u5dee\u8ddd<\/h2>\n<p>\u628a\u4e24\u5957\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u7279\u70b9\u5e76\u6392\u653e\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u51fa&quot;\u5e26\u5bbd\u9876\u7aef\u88ab\u9ed8\u8ba4\u63a5\u53d7&quot;\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u5546\u4e1a\u7814\u7a76\u7684 top-down \u8def\u5f84<\/strong>\uff1a\u4ece\u5f00\u53d1\u5546\u62ab\u9732\u6216\u7b2c\u4e09\u65b9\uff08Aterio\uff09\u8ddf\u8e2a\u7684\u9879\u76ee\u7ba1\u7ebf\u5f00\u59cb\uff0c\u4e58\u4ee5&quot;\u5047\u8bbe\u7684\u5bb9\u91cf\u5229\u7528\u7387&quot;\u3002Goldman \u5047\u8bbe 70% \u5df2\u7ecf\u88ab\u5b9e\u9645\u5229\u7528\uff0c\u628a\u5df2\u6279\u51c6\u88c5\u673a\u76f4\u63a5\u6298\u7b97\u6210\u7535\u529b\u9700\u6c42\u3002\u8fd9\u6761\u65b9\u6cd5\u5bf9\u5df2\u5efa\u6210\u9879\u76ee\u6709\u6548\uff0c\u4f46\u5bf9\u65e9\u671f\u9879\u76ee\u540c\u65f6\u53e0\u52a0\u4e86\u4e0a\u884c\u504f\u5dee\uff1a\u7b2c\u4e00\uff0c\u5f00\u53d1\u5546\u5728\u540c\u4e00\u9879\u76ee\u4e0a\u5411\u591a\u5bb6\u7535\u529b\u516c\u53f8\u91cd\u590d\u9012\u4ea4\u4e92\u8054\u8bf7\u6c42\uff0c\u4e1a\u5185\u79f0\u4e3a&quot;\u5e7b\u5f71\u8d1f\u8377&quot;\uff1b\u7b2c\u4e8c\uff0c\u53d8\u538b\u5668\u3001\u5f00\u5173\u67dc\u3001\u71c3\u6c14\u8f6e\u673a\u77ed\u7f3a\u8ba9\u591a\u4e2a\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u5fc3\u5efa\u8bbe\u5de5\u671f\u5ef6\u957f 24\u201372 \u4e2a\u6708\u3002\u8fd9\u4e24\u70b9 WRI 9 \u6708 17 \u65e5\u6587\u7ae0\u300aPowering the US Data Center Boom: Why Forecasting Can Be So Tricky\u300b\u5df2\u7ecf\u6b63\u9762\u5199\u5230\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>LBNL \u7684 bottom-up \u8def\u5f84<\/strong>\uff1a\u4ece\u5df2\u5b89\u88c5\u786c\u4ef6\u6e05\u5355\uff08GPU\u3001CPU \u670d\u52a1\u5668\u3001\u52a0\u901f\u5668\u3001\u5b58\u50a8\u3001\u7f51\u7edc\u3001\u51b7\u5374\u7cfb\u7edf\uff09\u51fa\u53d1\uff0c\u4e58\u4ee5\u6d4b\u5f97\u7684\u8fd0\u884c\u53c2\u6570\uff08\u5e74\u4f7f\u7528\u5c0f\u65f6\u6570\u3001PUE\u3001\u63a8\u7406\/\u8bad\u7ec3\u6bd4\uff09\u3002\u5b83\u4e0d\u9700\u8981\u5047\u8bbe&quot;\u5efa\u597d\u5c31\u7528\u6ee1&quot;\u2014\u2014\u5982\u679c\u67d0\u4e2a\u5df2\u90e8\u7f72\u786c\u4ef6\u6ca1\u6709\u5b9e\u9645\u8fd0\u884c\uff0c\u5c31\u4e0d\u4f1a\u53cd\u6620\u5728 TWh \u4e0a\u3002\u4f46\u53cd\u8fc7\u6765\uff0cLBNL \u7684\u5e26\u5bbd\u4e0a\u9650\u548c\u4e0b\u9650\u90fd\u4f9d\u8d56&quot;\u786c\u4ef6\u6548\u7387\u7ee7\u7eed\u6309\u8fc7\u53bb\u5341\u5e74\u8282\u594f\u63d0\u5347&quot;\u8fd9\u4e00\u5047\u8bbe\uff1b\u8fd9\u6761\u5047\u8bbe\u5728 2025 \u5e74\u4e4b\u540e\u5df2\u88ab DeepSeek \u4e0e z.ai \u7684\u53d1\u5e03\u6253\u7834\u3002<\/p>\n<h2>\u56db\u30012010\u20132018 \u7684\u53cd\u4f8b<\/h2>\n<p>WRI \u540c\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u91cc\u6709\u4e00\u6bb5\u503c\u5f97\u653e\u8fdb\u8111\u5b50\u91cc\u7684\u5bf9\u7167\uff1a\u4e92\u8054\u7f51\u5174\u8d77\u8ba9 2000\u20132005 \u5e74\u5168\u7403\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u5fc3\u7528\u7535\u98d9\u5347 90%\u30012005\u20132009 \u5e74\u518d\u6da8 24%\u3002\u4f46 2010\u20132018 \u8fd9\u516b\u5e74\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u5fc3\u7528\u7535\u57fa\u672c\u6301\u5e73\u2014\u2014\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u670d\u52a1\u5668\u6548\u7387\u3001\u865a\u62df\u5316\u3001\u51b7\u5374\u6280\u672f\u5347\u7ea7\u628a\u8ba1\u7b97\u91cf\u589e\u957f\u5168\u90e8\u5438\u6536\u3002\u90a3\u6bb5\u65f6\u95f4\u91cc\uff0c\u884c\u4e1a\u66fe\u53cd\u590d\u9884\u8a00&quot;\u7535\u4e0d\u591f&quot;\uff0c\u4e8b\u540e\u88ab\u6253\u8138\u3002<\/p>\n<p>LBNL 2014\u20132023 \u7684 13% \u5e74\u5316\u589e\u901f\u672c\u8eab\u5df2\u7ecf\u5305\u542b\u4e86\u8fc7\u53bb\u5341\u5e74\u7684\u6548\u7387\u589e\u76ca\u3002\u5982\u679c\u8fd9\u79cd\u589e\u76ca\u5728 2023\u20132028 \u7ee7\u7eed\uff0c\u533a\u95f4\u4e0b\u6cbf 6.7% \u662f\u770b\u5f85&quot;\u672a\u6765\u4e94\u5e74\u80fd\u4e0d\u80fd\u518d\u7ffb\u4e00\u500d&quot;\u7684\u5408\u7406\u9ed8\u8ba4\u3002<\/p>\n<h2>\u4e94\u3001DeepSeek\uff1a\u628a\u4e0a\u6cbf\u6253\u56de\u53bb\u7684\u6700\u5927\u53d8\u91cf<\/h2>\n<p>\u5bf9\u4efb\u4f55&quot;\u5e26\u5bbd\u4e0a\u6cbf&quot;\u9884\u6d4b\u7ed9\u51fa\u7684\u6700\u76f4\u63a5\u7684\u5426\u5b9a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff0c\u6765\u81ea 2025 \u5e74\u521d DeepSeek \u4e0e z.ai \u516c\u5e03\u7684\u82e5\u5e72\u9ad8\u6548\u6a21\u578b\u3002RFF 2025 \u5e74 3 \u6708\u6587\u7ae0\u300aThe Hype on Hyperscalers\u300b\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca Artificial Analysis\u3001HELM\u3001\u82e5\u5e72\u72ec\u7acb\u7535\u529b\u5ba1\u8ba1\u5747\u663e\u793a\uff1aDeepSeek \u516c\u5e03\u7684 R1 \u5728\u591a\u9879\u7b49\u4ef7\u6027\u80fd\u5bf9\u6bd4\u4e2d\u4f7f\u7528\u4e86\u663e\u8457\u66f4\u5c11\u7684\u8bad\u7ec3\u7b97\u529b\uff08\u5177\u4f53\u6570\u5b57\u5404\u5bb6\u4f30\u7b97\u5728&quot;\u63a5\u8fd1 1\/10&quot;\u5230&quot;\u7ea6 1\/3&quot;\u4e4b\u95f4\uff09\u3002\u8fd9\u4e0d\u662f\u8bf4&quot;\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u5fc3\u603b\u7528\u7535\u4f1a\u4e0b\u964d&quot;\u2014\u2014\u8bad\u7ec3\u4e4b\u540e\u7684\u63a8\u7406\u90e8\u7f72\u624d\u662f\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u5fc3\u8017\u7535\u7684\u4e3b\u4f53\uff0c\u65b0\u6a21\u578b\u8fed\u4ee3\u901f\u5ea6\u3001\u63a8\u7406\u8bf7\u6c42\u89c4\u6a21\u3001\u786c\u4ef6\u9000\u5f79\u8282\u594f\uff0c\u90fd\u53ef\u80fd\u8ba9\u603b\u8017\u7535\u8d85\u8fc7\u8bad\u7ec3\u7aef\u7684\u8282\u7ea6\u3002\u4f46\u5b83\u81f3\u5c11\u8bc1\u660e&quot;\u8f6f\u4ef6\u6548\u7387\u505c\u6ede&quot;\u4e0d\u518d\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u53ef\u4ee5\u9ed8\u8ba4\u4e3a\u771f\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\u3002<\/p>\n<p>LBNL \u81ea\u5df1\u627f\u8ba4&quot;\u53cd\u5f39\u6548\u5e94&quot;\u53ef\u80fd\u8ba9\u5e26\u5bbd\u4e0a\u6cbf 12% \u843d\u5730\u2014\u2014\u8fd9\u662f\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\u53cd\u590d\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u73b0\u8c61\uff08Jevons paradox\uff09\u3002\u4f46 DeepSeek \u4e8b\u4ef6\u81f3\u5c11\u8bf4\u660e\uff0c\u53cd\u5f39\u6548\u5e94\u4e0d\u662f\u5355\u65b9\u5411\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n<h2>\u516d\u3001\u76d1\u7ba1\u5c42\u5df2\u7ecf\u5728\u7528\u5e26\u5bbd\u505a&quot;\u98ce\u9669\u5b9a\u4ef7&quot;<\/h2>\n<p>\u503c\u5f97\u5173\u6ce8\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u5dde\u4e00\u7ea7\u516c\u7528\u4e8b\u4e1a\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\uff08\u4e0d\u662f GPU \u516c\u53f8\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u662f\u6295\u884c\uff09\u5df2\u7ecf\u628a&quot;\u5e26\u5bbd&quot;\u4f5c\u4e3a\u89c4\u5212\u8f93\u5165\u30022025 \u5e74\u4e0b\u534a\u5e74\u4e24\u4ef6\u5177\u6709\u6307\u6807\u610f\u4e49\u7684\u4e8b\uff1a<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Ohio\uff1aAmerican Electric Power \u4e0e\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u6743\u76ca\u4ee3\u8868\u8fbe\u6210\u534f\u8bae\uff0c\u8981\u6c42 25 MW \u4ee5\u4e0a\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u5fc3\u7b7e\u7ea6\u540e 12 \u5e74\u5185\u6309\u9884\u671f\u7528\u7535\u7684 85% \u627f\u62c5\u6700\u4f4e\u4ed8\u6b3e\uff1b\u8fdd\u7ea6\u6216\u53d6\u6d88\u8d39\u7528\u7531\u5176\u4ed6\u7528\u6237\u5206\u644a\u3002<\/li>\n<li>Georgia\uff1aPSC \u901a\u8fc7\u89c4\u5219\uff0c\u8981\u6c42 100 MW \u4ee5\u4e0a\u65b0\u7528\u6237\u627f\u62c5\u4e0a\u6e38\u53d1\u7535\u3001\u8f93\u914d\u7535\u6269\u5bb9\u8d39\u7528\uff0c\u5e76\u5f3a\u5236\u957f\u671f\u5408\u7ea6\u4e0e\u6700\u4f4e\u8ba1\u8d39\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Resources for the Future \u628a\u8fd9\u4e00\u7c7b\u5b89\u6392\u5f52\u4e3a&quot;\u628a\u98ce\u9669\u4ece\u666e\u901a\u7528\u6237\u8f6c\u79fb\u5230\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u5fc3\u81ea\u8eab&quot;\u3002\u4f46\u66f4\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\uff1a\u76d1\u7ba1\u5c42\u7b49\u4e8e\u516c\u5f00\u627f\u8ba4\u4e86\u7535\u7f51\u89c4\u5212&quot;\u4e0d\u63a5\u53d7 Goldman \u90a3\u79cd 8% \u70b9\u4f30\u8ba1\u4f5c\u4e3a\u8f93\u5165&quot;\u2014\u2014\u5b83\u4f7f\u7528 LBNL 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\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u5fc3\u8d1f\u8377\u5217\u4e3a\u4e3b\u8981\u9a71\u52a8\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5982\u679c 2026 \u5e74\u5b9e\u9645\u65b0\u88c5\u673a\u4e0d\u53ca\u9884\u671f\u3001\u4e14 DeepSeek \u7c7b\u8f6f\u4ef6\u6548\u7387\u589e\u76ca\u6301\u7eed\uff0c2027\u20132028 \u5bb9\u91cf\u4ef7\u683c\u56de\u5f52\u81f3 $50\u201380\/MW \u533a\u95f4\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u5c31\u503c\u5f97\u88ab\u8ba4\u771f\u8ba1\u5165\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u4ef7\u683c\u4fe1\u53f7\u51b3\u5b9a\u4e86&quot;AI \u62d6\u57ae\u7535\u7f51&quot;\u7684\u5224\u65ad\u662f\u5426\u771f\u5b9e\u843d\u5730\u4e3a\u5e02\u573a\u6210\u672c\u3002<\/p>\n<h2>\u516b\u3001\u5224\u65ad<\/h2>\n<p>\u628a\u4e0a\u8ff0\u51e0\u70b9\u5e76\u5230\u4e00\u8d77\uff0c\u6211\u7684\u5224\u65ad\u662f\uff1a<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>&quot;AI \u8ba9\u7535\u7f51\u5d29\u6e83&quot;\u5728\u91cf\u5316\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\u4e0d\u662f\u7a7a\u8bdd\uff0c\u4f46\u66f4\u51c6\u786e\u7684\u8bf4\u6cd5\u662f&quot;\u589e\u957f\u66f2\u7ebf\u7684\u659c\u7387\u88ab\u4e3b\u6d41\u9884\u6d4b\u56fa\u5316\u5728\u4e86\u5e26\u5bbd\u4e0a\u6cbf&quot;\u3002Berkeley Lab 2023 \u5b9e\u6d4b\u7684 4.4% \u5df2\u7ecf\u786e\u7acb\u4e8b\u5b9e\uff0c\u4f46\u8981\u628a\u5b83\u5916\u63a8\u5230 Goldman \u7684 8% \u8fd8\u9700\u8981\u7ea6\u4e00\u500d\u7684\u989d\u5916\u589e\u957f\u2014\u2014\u8fd9\u79cd\u5916\u63a8\u540c\u65f6\u4f9d\u8d56&quot;\u8f6f\u4ef6\u6548\u7387\u505c\u6ede + \u9879\u76ee\u5168\u90e8\u5efa\u6210 + 70% \u5229\u7528\u7387&quot;\u4e09\u6761\u5047\u8bbe\u540c\u65f6\u6210\u7acb\u3002<\/li>\n<li>DeepSeek \u7c7b\u8f6f\u4ef6\u8df3\u8dc3\u3001\u82af\u7247\u4ee3\u9645\u6548\u7387\u8fdb\u6b65\u3001\u4ee5\u53ca 2010\u20132018 \u90a3\u6bb5&quot;\u88ab\u9884\u6d4b\u6253\u8138&quot;\u7684\u5386\u53f2\uff0c\u5171\u540c\u652f\u6491\u533a\u95f4\u4e0b\u6cbf 6.7%\u3002&quot;2030 \u5e74\u5360 8%&quot;\u8981\u6210\u7acb\uff0c\u9700\u8981 GPU \u63a8\u7406\u7b97\u529b\u589e\u957f\u901f\u5ea6\u663e\u8457\u8d85\u8fc7\u8fc7\u53bb\u5341\u5e74\u7684\u786c\u4ef6\u6548\u7387\u63d0\u5347\uff0c\u4e14 2025 \u5e74\u540e\u7684\u8f6f\u4ef6\u6548\u7387\u88ab\u51bb\u7ed3\u3002\u8fd9\u4e24\u8005\u90fd\u4e0d\u662f\u9ed8\u8ba4\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u3002<\/li>\n<li>Ohio\u3001Georgia \u76d1\u7ba1\u5df2\u7ecf\u5728\u7528\u5e26\u5bbd\u505a\u98ce\u9669\u5b9a\u4ef7\u2014\u2014\u8fd9\u4e2a\u884c\u4e3a\u672c\u8eab\u5c31\u627f\u8ba4\u4e86&quot;\u4e24\u4e2a\u8fb9\u754c\u90fd\u4e0d\u5e94\u88ab\u9ed8\u8ba4\u63a5\u53d7&quot;\u3002<\/li>\n<li>\u7528 2023 \u5e74\u7684\u5b9e\u6d4b\u4f5c\u4e3a\u951a\u70b9\u800c\u4e0d\u662f 2030 \u5e74\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u4f5c\u4e3a\u951a\u70b9\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u653f\u7b56\u8ba8\u8bba\u66f4\u8bda\u5b9e\u7684\u8d77\u70b9\u3002\u628a&quot;8%&quot;\u6362\u6210&quot;4.4% \u5230 6.7%\u201312% \u7684\u5e26\u5bbd&quot;\uff0c\u7b49\u4e8e\u627f\u8ba4\u6211\u4eec\u8fd8\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\uff0c\u4f46\u77e5\u9053\u5e26\u5bbd\u5728\u90a3\u513f\u2014\u2014\u6bd4\u5047\u88c5\u786e\u5b9a\u66f4\u8bda\u5b9e\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u8fd9\u4ef6\u4e8b\u76ee\u524d\u8fd8\u5904\u5728&quot;\u672a\u6765\u4e94\u5e74\u5230\u5e95\u843d\u5728\u5e26\u5bbd\u54ea\u4e00\u7aef&quot;\u7684\u5f00\u7aef\uff0c\u4f46\u5df2\u7ecf\u591f\u6211\u4eec\u628a&quot;\u786e\u5b9a&quot;\u4e8c\u5b57\u4ece\u4e3b\u6d41\u53d9\u4e8b\u91cc\u53bb\u6389\u4e86\uff0c\u4fdd\u7559\u4e00\u6bb5&quot;\u52a0\u5e26\u5bbd\u7684\u8bda\u5b9e\u98ce\u9669\u8ba8\u8bba&quot;\u3002<\/p>\n<h2>\u540e\u7eed\u8ffd\u8e2a<\/h2>\n<p>\u4e0b\u6b21\u6211\u4f1a\u8ddf\u8fdb\uff1aLBNL 2025 \/ 2026 \u66f4\u65b0\u662f\u5426\u843d\u5728 4.4%\u20136.7% \u533a\u95f4\uff1bDeepSeek \u7c7b\u8f6f\u4ef6\u6548\u7387\u8df3\u8dc3\u662f\u5426\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u5728\u66f4\u591a\u65b0\u6a21\u578b\u4e0a\uff1bPJM 2027\u20132028 \u5bb9\u91cf\u4ef7\u683c\u662f\u5426\u56de\u5f52\u81f3 $50\u201380\/MW \u533a\u95f4\uff1b\u4ee5\u53ca Ohio \u4e4b\u540e\u662f\u5426\u6709\u66f4\u591a PUC \u590d\u5236&quot;\u5927\u7528\u6237\u6700\u4f4e\u4ed8\u6b3e&quot;\u89c4\u5219\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>\u6765\u6e90<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>https:\/\/newscenter.lbl.gov\/2025\/01\/15\/berkeley-lab-report-evaluates-increase-in-electricity-demand-from-data-centers\/<\/li>\n<li>https:\/\/eta-publications.lbl.gov\/sites\/default\/files\/2024-12\/lbnl-2024-united-states-data-center-energy-usage-report_1.pdf<\/li>\n<li>https:\/\/www.wri.org\/insights\/us-data-centers-electricity-demand<\/li>\n<li>https:\/\/www.resources.org\/common-resources\/the-hype-on-hyperscalers-data-centers-and-growing-electricity-demand\/<\/li>\n<li>https:\/\/www.goldmansachs.com\/insights\/articles\/AI-poised-to-drive-160-increase-in-power-demand<\/li>\n<li>https:\/\/www.goldmansachs.com\/insights\/articles\/us-data-center-power-demand-projected-to-double-by-2027<\/li>\n<li>https:\/\/www.iea.org\/reports\/energy-and-ai\/energy-demand-from-ai<\/li>\n<li>https:\/\/www.brookings.edu\/articles\/global-energy-demands-within-the-ai-regulatory-landscape<\/li>\n<li>https:\/\/www.energy.gov\/oe\/clean-energy-resources-meet-data-center-electricity-demand<\/li>\n<li>https:\/\/incorrys.com\/data-centers\/us-data-center-power-demand-forecast<\/li>\n<li>https:\/\/arxiv.org\/html\/2509.07218v3<\/li>\n<li>https:\/\/www.belfercenter.org\/research-analysis\/ai-data-centers-us-electric-grid<br \/>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u7b80\u77ed\u7ed3\u8bba\uff1a\u628a\u8fd9\u4ef6\u4e8b\u62c6\u5f00\u540e\u53d8\u5f97\u5947\u602a\u7684\uff0c\u4e0d\u662f&quot;AI \u7528\u7535\u53d8\u591a&quot;\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u53d8\u591a\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u2014\u2014\u5a92\u4f53\u53cd\u590d\u63f4\u5f15 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"tags":[93,382,336,381,384,383],"class_list":["post-400","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","tag-ai","tag-berkeley-lab","tag-336","tag-381","tag-384","tag-383"],"thaumaturgy_summary":{"summary_status":"missing","summary":"","summary_source":"none","summary_source_post_id":400,"summary_source_hash":"58a376998b0448865e8d5e4e81c9a2b797bccc44ff3cd812994f688aca7a9916","summary_modified":"2026-08-28 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