{"id":468,"date":"2026-09-07T16:22:56","date_gmt":"2026-09-07T08:22:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thaumaturgy.animax.moe\/?p=468"},"modified":"2026-09-07T16:22:56","modified_gmt":"2026-09-07T08:22:56","slug":"kp9%e3%80%81ap271%e3%80%81dst%e2%88%92412gannon-%e9%a3%8e%e6%9a%b4%e6%98%af-21-%e5%b9%b4%e6%9d%a5%e9%a6%96%e4%b8%aa-g5%e5%8f%88%e4%b8%ba%e4%bb%80%e4%b9%88%e8%bf%9c%e4%b8%8d%e6%98%af-1859","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thaumaturgy.animax.moe\/?p=468","title":{"rendered":"Kp=9\u3001Ap=271\u3001Dst=\u2212412:Gannon \u98ce\u66b4\u662f 21 \u5e74\u6765\u9996\u4e2a G5,\u53c8\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u8fdc\u4e0d\u662f 1859 \u5e74\u7684 Carrington"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>2024 \u5e74 5 \u6708 10 \u65e5 22:56 UTC \u8d77,\u65e5\u9762\u7f16\u53f7 AR3664 \u7684\u6d3b\u52a8\u533a\u8fde\u7eed\u89e6\u53d1 X \u7ea7\u8000\u6591,\u591a\u6b21\u5168\u6655\u65e5\u5195\u7269\u8d28\u629b\u5c04(CME)\u5728 5 \u6708 10-13 \u65e5\u62b5\u8fbe\u5730\u7403\u3002NOAA \u7a7a\u95f4\u5929\u6c14\u9884\u62a5\u4e2d\u5fc3(SWPC)\u5c06\u6b64\u6b21\u4e8b\u4ef6\u5b9a\u4e3a G5(&quot;\u6781\u7aef&quot;),\u8fd9\u662f\u81ea 2003 \u4e07\u5723\u8282\u98ce\u66b4\u4ee5\u6765\u8fd1 21 \u5e74\u7684\u9996\u6b21 G5,\u540e\u88ab\u547d\u540d\u4e3a Gannon Storm(\u7eaa\u5ff5\u7a7a\u95f4\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5bb6 Jennifer Gannon)\u30025 \u6708 11 \u65e5 Kp \u8fbe\u5230\u9971\u548c\u503c 9,3 \u5c0f\u65f6 Ap \u7d2f\u8ba1 271\u2014\u2014\u8fd9\u662f Ap \u8bb0\u5f55\u4e0a\u5386\u53f2\u7b2c\u4e8c,\u4ec5\u6b21\u4e8e 1960-11-13 \u7684 280\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u540c\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e8b\u4ef6\u653e\u8fdb\u53e6\u4e00\u628a\u7269\u7406\u5c3a,\u8d8a\u8fc7\u8d70\u8fdb&quot;Carrington \u91cd\u590d&quot;\u7684\u53cd\u9762:May 11 \u65e5 03:00 UTC Dst \u89e6\u53ca \u2212412 nT,\u67d0\u4e9b\u77ac\u65f6\u6570\u636e\u5b50\u96c6\u7ed9\u51fa \u2212518 nT\u3002\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740 Gannon \u6bd4 1989-03 \u9b41\u5317\u514b \u2212589 nT \u5f31\u4e09\u6210\u5de6\u53f3,\u4e0e 2003 \u4e07\u5723\u8282 \u2212383 nT \u7565\u6df1\u3001\u63a5\u8fd1 2003-11-20 \u7b2c\u4e8c\u6ce2 \u2212422 nT\u3002Carrington \u4f30\u8ba1\u533a\u95f4\u662f \u2212800 \u81f3 \u22121750 nT,May 1921 \u98ce\u66b4\u4f30\u8ba1\u662f \u2212907 \u00b1 132 nT\u2014\u2014\u4e24\u6b21\u90fd\u6df1 Gannon \u4e00\u500d\u5230\u4e09\u500d\u3002Kp\u3001Ap\u3001Dst \u4e09\u5957\u7269\u7406\u91cf\u5728\u8fd9\u6b21\u98ce\u66b4\u91cc\u4e0d\u5728\u7ebf\u6761\u4e0a\u540c\u65f6\u9971\u548c:\u6781\u5149\u88ab\u63a8\u5230\u4f5b\u5dde Keys\u3001\u5c24\u5361\u5766\u3001\u5df4\u54c8\u9a6c\u3001\u6ce2\u591a\u9ece\u5404\u3001\u590f\u5a01\u5937\u3001\u571f\u8033\u5176\u3001\u4f0a\u6717\u3001\u5317\u5370\u5ea6\u3001\u4e4c\u9c81\u6728\u9f50-\u5317\u4eac\u4e00\u7ebf,\u662f Kp=9 + G5 \u7b49\u7ea7\u7684\u4ea7\u7269,\u4e0d\u662f\u5730\u78c1\u5f3a\u5ea6\u672c\u8eab\u7684\u4ea7\u7269\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u8fd9\u6b21\u53d9\u4e8b\u504f\u5dee\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u5206\u53c9\u2014\u2014\u8089\u773c\u6781\u5149\u8fdc,\u5b9e\u9645\u78c1\u573a\u9650\u5ea6\u4e2d\u7b49\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u98ce\u66b4\u524d\u7684 48 \u5c0f\u65f6\u91cc,&quot;Carrington \u53c8\u6765\u4e86&quot;\u5728\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4e3b\u6d41\u9884\u8b66\u63d0\u9192\u4e2d\u88ab\u53cd\u590d\u63f4\u5f15\u3002CNN\u3001\u536b\u62a5\u3001Reuters \u5728 5 \u6708 9-10 \u65e5\u628a\u98ce\u66b4\u4e0e 1859 Carrington \u5e76\u5217,\u5f15\u7528 Lloyd&#x27;s \u4e0e\u5251\u6865\u98ce\u9669\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5fc3\u7684&quot;$3300 \u4ebf\u4fdd\u9669\u635f\u5931 \/ GDP \u635f\u5931\u8de8 18-47 \u5929 \/ 4000-70000 \u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143&quot;\u6a21\u578b;Vice\u3001\u72ec\u7acb\u79d1\u5b66\u4f5c\u8005\u3001\u90e8\u5206\u4e2d\u6587\u5a92\u4f53\u4e0e\u79d1\u666e\u81ea\u5a92\u4f53\u5199\u51fa&quot;\u4e92\u8054\u7f51\u672b\u65e5&quot;&quot;\u4e0b\u4e00\u4e2a Y2K&quot;\u4f5c\u4e3a\u8bc4\u4ef7\u3002\u540c\u4e00\u4e2a\u65f6\u6bb5\u91cc,Met Office \/ NOAA SWPC \u7ed9\u51fa\u7684\u5b9e\u9645\u590d\u8ff0\u662f&quot;&#x27;low-level&#x27; G5&quot;\u2014\u2014\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8868\u8ff0\u76f4\u63a5\u8fdb\u5165 Royal Society Open Science \u7b2c 13 \u5377\u7b2c 4 \u671f\u300aThe May 2024 geomagnetic storm: UK experience and perspective\u300b(Vlach et al. 2025, doi 10.1098\/rsos.251943):\u6458\u8981\u4e2d\u5199\u660e&quot;The storm was categorized as a low-level G5\u2026They correctly predicted a low-level G5 storm, but this may not work every time as the polarity of the magnetic field is a key factor that cannot be measured until the CME has reached the L1 position, and then there is only approximately 30 min warning until impact. Most users want 24 h warning\u3002&quot;\u540c\u6837\u7684\u53e3\u5f84\u5728 Frontiers in Astronomy and Space Sciences (2025) \u7684\u300aThe geomagnetic and geoelectric response to the May 2024 storm\u300b\u4e2d\u91cd\u590d\u2014\u2014&quot;The &#x27;Gannon&#x27; geomagnetic storm of 10-12 May 2024 was the first extreme storm of solar cycle 25 and the largest in more than 20 years&quot;\u3002\u6362\u53e5\u8bdd\u8bf4,\u540c\u884c\u8bc4\u8bae\u6587\u732e\u8ba4\u540c&quot;Kp=9\u3001Ap=271\u3001\u89c4\u6a21\u5728 21 \u5e74\u91cc\u7b2c\u4e00&quot;,\u4f46\u5b83\u4eec\u6ca1\u6709\u8ba4\u540c&quot;Carrington \u91cd\u590d&quot;\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5b9e\u9645\u786c\u635f\u5931\u6ca1\u6709\u8d70\u5230 Carrington \u540c\u7ea7\u7684\u8017\u9500\u9762\u3002Ashruf\u3001Bhaskar\u3001Vineeth\u3001Pant\u3001M \u5728 arXiv:2410.16254\u300aLoss of 12 Starlink Satellites Due to Pre-conditioning of Intense Space Weather Activity Surrounding the Extreme Geomagnetic Storm of 10 May 2024\u300b\u4e2d\u8bb0\u5f55:16 April \u81f3 15 May \u8fd9\u6bb5\u65f6\u95f4\u91cc\u5171\u6709 12 \u9897 Starlink \u536b\u661f\u88ab\u5347\u6e29\u5927\u6c14\u62fd\u5165\u5927\u6c14\u5c42\u71c3\u70e7\u5760\u843d,\u4e3b\u56e0\u662f 4 \u6708 25 \u65e5 EUV \u4e0e Joule heating \u5df2\u7ecf\u9884\u5148\u628a thermosphere \u8c03\u9ad8\u4e86 baseline,\u800c G5 \u4e3b\u76f8\u9636\u6bb5\u628a baseline \u52a0\u9636\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u88ab\u540c\u884c\u8bc4\u8bae\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u4e8b\u5b9e:LEO \u6279\u536b\u4e0e\u4e2d\u9ad8\u5ea6\u4f4e\u8f68\u661f\u5ea7\u5728 EUV pre-conditioning + \u5730\u78c1\u98ce\u66b4\u94fe\u4e0b,\u8fd9\u6b21\u7684\u5177\u4f53\u8ba1\u91cf\u843d\u5728\u4e86 SpaceX \u8fd9\u5bb6\u3002\u540c\u671f\u62a5\u9053\u7684\u7cbe\u51c6\u519c\u4e1a GPS \u4f4d\u79fb\u6700\u9ad8 230 \u82f1\u5c3a(\u7ea6 70 \u7c73)\u3001\u6301\u7eed 1-2 \u5929,SNAPP \u56e2\u961f\u4f30\u8ba1\u7f8e\u56fd\u7389\u7c73\u5e26\u4f5c\u7269\u7cfb\u7edf\u635f\u5931\u7ea6 5 \u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u3002NOAA \u540c\u6b65\u8bb0\u5f55\u7684 R3 strong HF radio blackout\u30021989 \u5e74\u9b41\u5317\u514b\u4e8b\u4ef6\u4e2d Hydro-Qu\u00e9bec \u6574\u4e2a\u7535\u7f51\u6389\u7535 9 \u5c0f\u65f6\u7684\u72b6\u6001\u6ca1\u6709\u88ab\u590d\u5236\u2014\u2014PJM\u3001MISO\u3001ERCOT\u3001NERC \u5404\u5bb6\u516c\u5f00\u901a\u62a5\u53ea\u6709 GIC \u76d1\u6d4b\u9608\u503c\u544a\u8b66,\u6ca1\u6709\u51fa\u73b0\u7535\u5382\u6216\u5927\u578b\u53d8\u538b\u5668\u7684\u7fa4\u4f53\u635f\u4f24\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u662f Gannon \u98ce\u66b4\u7559\u4e0b\u7684&quot;\u53cc\u4f20\u611f\u8bb0\u5f55&quot;:12 \u9897\u536b\u661f\u5760\u843d + 500 \u767e\u4e07\u7f8e\u5143 GPS \u4f4d\u79fb\u3002\u4e24\u4e2a\u6570\u5b57\u4e00\u8d77\u662f Gannon \u7684\u4e8b\u5b9e\u5916\u58f3,\u800c Carrington 1859 \u5e74\u7684\u4e8b\u5b9e\u5916\u58f3\u662f\u7535\u62a5\u673a\u5728\u5730\u7f51\u4e0a\u8d77\u706b\u3001\u52a0\u52d2\u6bd4\u6d77\u89c2\u770b\u5230\u7684\u6781\u5149\u8bb0\u5f55\u3002\u8fd9\u4e24\u7ec4\u5916\u58f3\u7684\u5c3a\u5ea6\u4e0d\u4e00\u81f4:Carrington-attributed Dst \u4f30\u8ba1\u662f Gannon \u4e24\u500d\u4ee5\u4e0a,\u4e8b\u5b9e\u5916\u58f3\u662f\u7535\u62a5 + \u706b\u5149\u7684 19 \u4e16\u7eaa\u4f4e\u6280\u672f\u65f6\u4ee3;Gannon-attributed Dst \u662f G5 \u4e0b\u9650,\u4e8b\u5b9e\u5916\u58f3\u662f\u4f4e\u8f68\u661f\u5ea7\u7684\u6279\u536b + \u5398\u7c73\u7ea7 GPS \u519c\u4e1a\u7684 21 \u4e16\u7eaa\u9ad8\u6280\u672f\u65f6\u4ee3\u3002\u628a Carrington \u6570\u5b57\u52a0\u5230 Gannon \u5916\u58f3\u4e0a,\u7b49\u4e8e\u628a 21 \u4e16\u7eaa\u65b0\u51fa\u73b0\u7684\u8106\u5f31\u70b9\u76f4\u63a5\u8bfb\u8fdb 19 \u4e16\u7eaa\u7684\u7269\u7406\u91cf\u2014\u2014\u8fd9\u662f\u53d9\u4e8b\u504f\u5dee\u7684\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4e2a\u5206\u53c9\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u53d9\u4e8b\u504f\u5dee\u7684\u7b2c\u4e09\u4e2a\u5206\u53c9\u53d1\u751f\u5728\u66f4\u65e9\u4e00\u4e9b\u2014\u2014\u592a\u9633\u5468 25 \u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u9519\u4f4d\u8ba9 2024-05 \u7684&quot;\u610f\u6599\u4e4b\u5916\u7684 G5&quot;\u88ab\u8bfb\u4e3a&quot;Carrington \u63d0\u524d\u5230\u6765&quot;\u30022019 \u5e74 12 \u6708,NOAA \/ NASA \/ ISES \u5728\u5236\u5b9a Cycle 25 \u9884\u6d4b\u65f6\u7ed9\u51fa SSN \u2248 115 \u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u5cf0\u533a\u95f4(\u9ad8\u5ea6\u4e0e Cycle 24 \u6301\u5e73),\u5a92\u4f53\u8d70\u4e86\u51e0\u4e2a\u6708\u7684&quot;\u4e0b\u4e00\u4e2a\u592a\u9633\u5468\u4f1a\u504f\u5f31&quot;\u7684\u9884\u8bbe;McIntosh \u7b49\u4eba\u5728 2023 \u5e74\u521d(terminator event + polar field \u524d\u5146\u9884\u6d4b)\u91cd\u505a\u4f30\u8ba1,\u7ed9\u51fa SSN 184 \u00b1 17 \u5728 2024 \u8d77\u8df3;2023 \u5e74 10 \u6708 NOAA SWPC \u516c\u5f00\u628a\u9884\u6d4b\u91cd\u4f30\u5230 SSN 137-173 \u533a\u95f4\u3001\u9ad8\u5cf0\u7a97\u53e3 2024 \u5e74 1-10 \u6708\u3002\u5b9e\u9645:October 2024 \u5e73\u6ed1\u6708\u5747 SSN \u5cf0\u503c 160.8,Wikipedia \u4e0e solarcyclescience.com \u7684\u53e3\u5f84\u4e00\u81f4\u30022019 \u9884\u6d4b\u6bd4\u5b9e\u6d4b\u4f4e 30-40%,2023 \u91cd\u4f30\u5219\u8bef\u4e2d\u2014\u2014\u8fd9\u79cd\u524d\u7f6e&quot;\u9884\u671f\u504f\u5f31&quot;\u4e0e&quot;\u5b9e\u6d4b\u8d85\u51fa&quot;\u7684\u5bf9\u7167,\u5728\u5a92\u4f53\u53e3\u5f84\u4e0b\u88ab\u5ef6\u5c55\u4e3a&quot;\u592a\u9633\u6d3b\u52a8\u6bd4\u9884\u671f\u66f4\u5267\u70c8&quot;,\u518d\u88ab\u5ef6\u5c55\u4e3a&quot;\u6216\u8bb8\u662f\u4e0d\u662f Carrington \u8fd9\u5c31\u5230\u4e86&quot;\u3002\u8fd9\u6761\u53d9\u4e8b\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u94fe\u6ca1\u6709\u6307\u5411\u771f\u6b63\u7684 Carrington \u91cf\u7ea7,\u4f46\u5b83\u628a&quot;\u707e\u5907\u4e1a\u52a1\u590d\u8ff0&quot;\u7684\u53e3\u5f84\u62c9\u6ee1\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4fdd\u9669\u884c\u4e1a\u7684\u5bf9\u5e94\u53e3\u5f84\u4e5f\u6ca1\u6709\u88ab\u6fc0\u6d3b\u3002Lloyd&#x27;s \u4e0e\u5251\u6865\u98ce\u9669\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5fc3\u7684&quot;$3300 \u4ebf Carrington \u573a\u666f\u4e0b\u4fdd\u9669\u635f\u5931&quot;\u6a21\u578b\u5728 Gannon \u524d\u540e\u7684 6-12 \u4e2a\u6708\u91cc\u4ecd\u7136\u6302\u5728 Lloyd&#x27;s Space Risk \u4e3b\u9875,\u672a\u88ab\u4f5c\u4e3a Gannon \u5b9e\u9645\u8d54\u4ed8\u7684\u4f9d\u636e\u2014\u2014\u8fd9\u662f\u4e2a\u5bf9\u7167\u53e3\u5f84:Aon\u3001Artemis\u3001AGCS\u3001AJG Specialty \u7684 2024 Q3 \u4e0e 2025 Q1 \u62a5\u544a\u91cc,Gannon \u98ce\u66b4\u5728 2024 \u5168\u5e74\u592a\u7a7a\/\u7535\u7f51\u4fdd\u9669\u635f\u5931\u8868\u4e2d\u7684\u8d21\u732e\u8f83\u5c0f,\u8fd9\u4e00\u5e74\u7684\u635f\u5931\u4e3b\u8981\u7531\u5728\u8f68\u78b0\u649e\u3001\u51ef\u65af\u52d2\u7ea7\u522b\u536b\u661f\u635f\u5931\u8d21\u732e,\u4e0d\u662f\u592a\u9633\u4e8b\u4ef6\u3002\u6362\u53e5\u8bdd\u8bf4,\u4fdd\u9669\u884c\u4e1a\u6ca1\u6709\u6309 3300 \u4ebf\u6a21\u578b\u6765\u4e3a Gannon \u540e\u5b9a\u4ef7(\u6a21\u578b\u672a\u4e0a\u6eaf\u5230 Gannon \u65f6\u6bb5),\u4e5f\u6ca1\u6709\u6309 12 \u9897 Starlink + 500 \u767e\u4e07 GPS \u6765\u66f4\u65b0\u6a21\u578b\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u7ec4\u672a\u88ab\u5237\u65b0\u3001\u518d\u5f15\u7528\u65b9\u9762\u90fd\u9519\u4f4d\u7684\u5173\u8054\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6240\u4ee5\u6211\u628a&quot;\u53d9\u4e8b vs \u8bc1\u636e&quot;\u6446\u5728\u4e00\u6761\u68af\u5b50\u4e0a\u7406\u89e3:Gannon \u98ce\u66b4\u662f\u4e8b\u5b9e(Kp=9\u3001Ap=271 \u8fd9\u4e00\u7c7b\u6570\u636e\u8868\u4e0a\u7684\u53f2\u7ea7 21 \u5e74\u7b2c\u4e00),\u4f46\u5c5e\u4e8b\u5b9e\u8868\u4e0b\u65b9\u7684 G5(\u540c 2003-11-20 \u7b2c\u4e8c\u6ce2 \u2248 1989-03 \u2248 2003 \u4e07\u5723\u8282\u540c\u6863,\u8ddd Carrington\/1921 \u8ddd\u79bb\u4e00\u4e2a\u91cf\u7ea7)\u3002&quot;Carrington \u91cd\u590d&quot;\u7684\u5224\u5b9a\u5728\u4e09\u6761\u5750\u6807\u4e0a\u540c\u65f6\u574d\u584c:(1) Dst \u5728 60 \u81f3 70 \u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\u5de6\u53f3\u672a\u5230 Carrington \u4e0b\u9650,\u53ea\u80fd\u5728 Ap \u7d2f\u8ba1\u4e0e Kp \u9971\u548c\u4e0a\u6709\u91cd\u53e0;(2) \u5b9e\u9645\u786c\u635f\u5931\u53d1\u751f\u5728 LEO \u6279\u536b\u4e0e\u7cbe\u51c6\u519c\u4e1a GPS,\u8fd9\u4e24\u7c7b\u8106\u5f31\u70b9 1859 \u5e74\u4e0d\u5b58\u5728\u2014\u2014\u628a 19 \u4e16\u7eaa\u7684\u7535\u62a5\u673a\u548c\u7535\u62a5\u7f51\u635f\u4f24\u76f4\u63a5\u6362\u7b97\u5230 21 \u4e16\u7eaa\u7684\u661f\u5ea7\u4e0e\u519c\u673a,\u672c\u8eab\u5c31\u8fdd\u53cd\u4e86\u65f6\u95f4\u65ad\u9762;(3) \u592a\u9633\u5468\u9884\u6d4b\u9519\u4f4d\u8ba9&quot;\u5b9e\u6d4b SSN \u9ad8\u4e8e\u5b98\u65b9\u521d\u59cb\u9884\u671f&quot;\u88ab\u9ed8\u8ba4\u89e3\u8bfb\u4e3a&quot;G5 \u6bd4\u9884\u671f\u66f4\u6781\u7aef&quot;,\u800c 2023 NOAA \u91cd\u4f30\u5df2\u7ecf\u63a5\u4f4f\u4e86\u5b9e\u9645\u5cf0\u503c\u3002\u5982\u679c\u6709\u4efb\u4f55\u4e00\u53e5\u6700\u503c\u5f97\u5199\u4e0b\u6765,\u90a3\u5e94\u5f53\u662f&quot;\u98ce\u66b4\u786e\u5b9e\u6765\u4e86,\u4f46\u662f\u4f4e\u7aef\u7684 G5,\u4e0d\u662f Carrington;\u5b9e\u9645\u8017\u9500\u9762\u5728\u4f4e\u8f68\u661f\u5ea7\u4e0e\u7cbe\u51c6\u519c\u4e1a\u800c\u975e\u7535\u7f51\u4e3b\u5e72&quot;\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4ecd\u5728\u60ac\u7f6e\u7684\u51e0\u4e2a\u8ddf\u8e2a\u70b9:(1) Solar Cycle 26 \u7684 terminator \u9884\u6d4b\u5728 2027-2029 \u533a\u95f4\u662f\u5426\u4fdd\u6301 Gannon \u540e\u7684&quot;Cycle 25 \u504f\u5f31\u9884\u6d4b\u9519\u4f4d&quot;\u94fe\u6761,\u7136\u540e\u53cd\u5411\u4fee\u6574;(2) Lloyd&#x27;s Space Risk \/ Aon \/ Artemis \/ Gallagher-Class \u662f\u5426\u5728\u672a\u6765 24 \u4e2a\u6708\u5185\u628a Gannon \u540e\u8865\u767b\u8fdb&quot;$3300 \u4ebf Carrington \u573a\u666f&quot;\u98ce\u9669\u8868\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5b9a\u4ef7\u8bc1\u636e;(3) LEO \u8fd0\u8425\u5546(SpaceX\u3001OneWeb\u3001Amazon Kuiper)\u662f\u5426\u5728 2025-2026 \u628a EUV\/Joule heating pre-conditioning telemetry \u5199\u5165\u4f8b\u884c\u64cd\u4f5c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u4e8b\u540e\u56de\u6eaf;(4) NOAA SWPC \u5728 L1 monitoring + DSCOVR \u4e0e\u672a\u6765 SWFO-L1 \u4e0a\u662f\u5426\u4f9d\u7136\u53ea\u80fd\u7ef4\u6301 30 \u5206\u949f lead-time,\u4ee5\u53ca RSOS \u4e00\u6587\u6240\u5efa\u8bae\u7684 24 \u5c0f\u65f6 lead-time \u9700\u6c42\u662f\u5426\u80fd\u5728\u7b97\u6cd5\u6216\u65b0\u63a2\u6d4b\u5668\u4e0a\u56de\u5e94;(5) Ap=271 \u8fd9\u7c7b\u8fd1\u9876\u90e8\u8bb0\u5f55\u662f\u5426\u4f1a\u5728 NOAA SWPC 2025-2027 \u8bc4\u4f30\u4e2d\u88ab\u5e76\u5165&quot;G5+ capacity&quot; \u7ef4\u5ea6\u5e76\u5217\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6bcf\u4e00\u6761\u90fd\u662f\u80fd\u6539\u5199\u53d9\u4e8b\u53e3\u5f84\u7684\u4e0b\u4e00\u53d1\u8bc1\u636e\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e3b\u8981\u6765\u6e90:<br \/>\n\u2014 NOAA SWPC <em>Historical Comparison of May 2024 Solar Storms<\/em>(2024-05-22):<br \/>\nhttps:\/\/www.spaceweather.gov\/news\/historical-comparison-may-2024-solar-storms<br \/>\n\u2014 Wikipedia, <em>May 2024 solar storms<\/em>(Gannon storm, AR3664, Dst \u2212412 nT, Ap 271, Kp 9):<br \/>\nhttps:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/May_2024_solar_storms<br \/>\n\u2014 Ashruf, Bhaskar, Vineeth, Pant &amp; M 2024(arXiv:2410.16254, 2024-10 v1 \/ 2025-06 v2):<br \/>\nhttps:\/\/arxiv.org\/abs\/2410.16254<br \/>\n\u2014 Vlach et al. 2025, <em>The May 2024 geomagnetic storm: UK experience and perspective<\/em>, Royal Society Open Science 13(4):<br \/>\nhttps:\/\/royalsocietypublishing.org\/rsos\/article\/13\/4\/251943\/481540\/The-May-2024-geomagnetic-storm-UK-experience-and<br \/>\n\u2014 Wikipedia, <em>Solar cycle 25<\/em>(2019 \u9884\u6d4b + 2023 \u91cd\u4f30 + \u5b9e\u6d4b 161 \u5cf0\u503c):<br \/>\nhttps:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Solar_cycle_25<br \/>\n\u2014 NOAA SWPC, <em>Solar Cycle Progression<\/em>(2019 \u4e0e 2023-10 \u53cc\u9884\u6d4b\u7ebf):<br \/>\nhttps:\/\/www.spaceweather.gov\/products\/solar-cycle-progression<br \/>\n\u2014 Frontiers in Astronomy and Space Sciences 2025, <em>The geomagnetic and geoelectric response to the May 2024 storm<\/em>:<br \/>\nhttps:\/\/www.frontiersin.org\/journals\/astronomy-and-space-sciences\/articles\/10.3389\/fspas.2025.1550923\/full<br \/>\n\u2014 Reuters 2024-05-11, <em>Musk&#x27;s Starlink satellites disrupted by major solar storm<\/em>:<br \/>\nhttps:\/\/www.reuters.com\/technology\/space\/starlink-experiencing-degraded-service-musk-says-satellites-under-pressure-2024-05-11\/<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>2024 \u5e74 5 \u6708 10 \u65e5 22:56 UTC \u8d77,\u65e5\u9762\u7f16\u53f7 AR3664 \u7684\u6d3b\u52a8\u533a\u8fde\u7eed\u89e6\u53d1 X \u7ea7\u8000\u6591, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"tags":[493,490,492,491,489],"class_list":["post-468","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","tag-carrington","tag-gannon-storm","tag-narrative-vs-evidence","tag-solar-cycle-25","tag-space-weather"],"thaumaturgy_summary":{"summary_status":"missing","summary":"","summary_source":"none","summary_source_post_id":468,"summary_source_hash":"59f920054524dd62f43e4496ad60e9e860079feb197156de15e7dcf61bb8820d","summary_modified":"2026-09-07 08:22:56","summary_freshness":"unknown"},"related_issues":[{"id":469,"title":"Kp=9\u3001Ap=271\u3001Dst=\u2212412:Gannon \u98ce\u66b4\u662f 21 \u5e74\u6765\u9996\u4e2a G5,\u53c8\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u8fdc\u4e0d\u662f 1859 \u5e74 Carrington 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